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A QUANTITATIVE LOOK AT COVID-19

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Haluk ZÜLFİKAR

Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, Economics in English

Email: zulfikar@istanbul.edu.tr

ABSTRACT

In this study, COVID-19 will be tackled from different perspectives with the help of statistical analyses. The very feature of the virus to create respiratory tract conditions, aggravate the already existing respiratory conditions and transmit via air droplets together with other triggering factors like age and gender, revealed the significance of dense population of living spaces, hence the importance of sociodemographic advancement. This necessitated the modelling of the analyses to be made not only in the context of health condions but also on the basis of the above mentioned variable groups and in a multivariate fashion. The study used multivariate decision making methods, multivariate statistical methods, quantitative and qualitative desk and field research. To ensure the data continuity and consistency, COVID-19 struggling systems and performances of the selected countries were modelled.  It was found out that during the lockdowns periods, the sociopsychological and socioeconomic conditions of the individuals of the selected countries were all at stake.

Keywords: Statistical Analyses, The Attitudes and Behaviors of Individuals during COVID-19 Period, COVID-19 Struggle Performance Scores of Countries

INTRODUCTION

A Global and Comparative Perspective on COVID-19 Pandemic

The viral disease which originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019, was named as COVID-19 as it originated from the novel Corona Virus, which was later turned into and defined as a global pandemic. While the crude death rate was reported to be 2 % by the World Health Organization (WHO) on January 29, 2020, it was revised as 3.8 % based upon the data obtained from 55,954 cases tested by WHO and China[1]. On March 3, 2020, the crude death rate was revised again as 3.4 %, which comprises a significantly high rate in comparison to death rates arising from seasonal diseases like seasonal flu and swine flu.  

Table 1. Flu Pandemics and Seasonal Fatality Rates (%)

As of June 02, 2020, “Case-Fatality Rate” (CFR) originating from COVID-19 prevalent in 213 countries was calculated as 11 % while pandemic severity rate (PSR) was around 2 %.   Between March 16-18, 2020, it was found out that the number of COVID-19 cases and death toll dramatically changed from the first degree linear form into an exponential function and increased rapidly. That was revised as second degree linear form as a parabolic form on April 28 for the World in general. As per the study conducted with 6,839 patients, COVID-19 related death cases examined per age group on the basis of the presence of underlying conditions, it was found out that the relationship between the fatality rate and the presence of underlying conditions was statistically significant (p≤0,05).  As it can be seen on Table 2, while the fatality rate until the age of 17, is almost non-existent (0,04 %), it was observed that the individuals in 18-64 age group with no underlying conditions were more careless and had a higher fatality rate as opposed to individuals aged 65+ with underlying conditions, who seemd to have a growing fatality rate due to the combined effect of advanced age and related geriatric factors.[3]

Table 2. Fatality Distribution of COVID-19 Patients with an Underlying Condition per Age Group (Person and %)

The underlying conditions with the highest impact which determine the severity of the disease and/or ultimately lead to death, turned out to be cardiovascular diseases, diabetics, chronic respiratory tract diseases, hypertension, cancer and kidney diseases respectively. It was also discovered that gender played a key role in both getting infected with the virus and the fatality rate; as 62 % of the dead patients comprised of males while 38 % comprised of females. Studies revealed that COVID-19 is transmitted by interaction with the infected person through virus-carrying airborne droplets, humidity, airborne particles, and through various objects, surfaces, floors lengthening the life duration of the virus. 

COVID-19 PANDEMIC COMPARATIVE ANALYSES IN THE CONTEXT OF COUNTRIES BASED ON PRIMARY AND SECONDARY DATA

Materials and Methods

Desk Research with a Quantitative and Qualitative Scope

Throughout the world, there has been an increase in the number of organisations compiling data gathered from different forms of research studies supported by statistical analyses and these data driven open access platforms also contribute greatly in matters of health.  Especially data gathered from WHO and www.worldometers.info allow the researchers to conduct advanced statistical analyses. The desk research of this study is based upon elaborating on the available secondary data with basic and advanced statistical analyses. As per the data obtained on June 02 2020, out of a population of 1 million, the first 100 countries with 2 or more patients died due to COVID-19, Belgium was the first, while the US was the 9 and Turkey was the 30th. When the COVID-19 occurrence rate was examined in the scope of a population of 1 million, the ranking turned out to be 9th for Belgium, 5th for US and 32nd for Turkey respectively. This is a very simple indicator of how inaccurate it would be to rank countires in accordance with one single variable, even though the comparisons were made on the basis of a population of 1 million. As a result, this study tackled the performances of countries in terms of their struggle against COVID-19 pandemic on a multivariate platform, while employing Grey Relational Analysis Method (GRAM), as a multi-criteria decision-making method with the idea of reaching robust results  to determine the country ranking on the basis of their performance rates. 3 major criteria; i) the reliability of the obtained data, ii) GNP per person and iii) human development index were taken into account while determining the countries to be included in this analysis. Within the scope of countries included in the study, no relationship was found to exist between the COVID-19 struggling performance of the country in question and GNP (p≥0,05), while a negative and weak relationship was found to exist between IGI and the COVID-19 struggling performance (R=-0,2602; P≤0,05). Along the same line, the economic output of the countries has no relationship with their success levels in terms of their struggle against COVID-19. In a similar vein, surprisingly, the increase in the level of development of any given country is linked with the decrease in the performance of the country in their struggle against COVID-19 (See Graph 1).

In the context of the performance evaluations of the countries tackled in this study, the analyzed factors per country are (i) the first date when the virus was discovered, (ii) the continent where the country is located, (iii) standardized (S) number of serious patients/active patient ratio performance (P), (iv) S case per population P., (v) S casualty per population P., (vi) S test per population P., (vii) S GNP P., (viii) S health expenses amount/GNP P., (ix) S. highly educated population P., (x) S new case per population P., (xi) S total healing per population P.

Observational Reserach with a Qualitative and Quantitative Scope

For this study, a twofold field research with qualitative and quantitative research and data gathering methods was conducted to obtain primary data. Within the scope of the study, Turkish people`s perceptions and attitudes toward COVID-19 were examined for the ultimate purpose of comparing and contrasting them with the findings of the desk research. The goal was to reach strategically important findings on the basis of the comparative analyses and results of the twofold research conducted. With the field research, the perceptions of Turkish people regarding other countries` struggle against COVID-19 were identified.  The study was realized with 460+24 households and the same number of individuals residing in Istanbul, Turkey,  To examine the individuals, face-to-face, quantitative and qualitative interviews were conducted with CATI and CAWI data gathering methods.

Findings and Evaluations

Through desk research, the success perceptions and general attitude and bevaiors of the individuals in the context of struggle against COVID-19 have been thoroughly examined. With the help of the findings of the desk research, COVID-19 Struggle Performance Scores were generated per each selected country to be exposed to further examination through comparative analyses.

The following graph depicts  the “COVID-19 Struggle Performance Scores per Country” generated on the basis of real data published by each selected country, along with the comparative analyses of the field research data.

Graph 1. Pervceived and Measured COVID-19 Struggle Performance Score Comparisons between Selected Countries

As it is depicted in Graph 1, the perceived COVID-19 struggle performance perceptions of Istanbul residents, interviewed within the scope of this study, turned out to be lower than the actual performance score for US. In other words, United States appeared to be the only country with the most disappointing COVID-19 struggle performance.  In a similar vein, developed countries received higher scores in terms of their perceived performance in comparison to their actual performance whereas relatively less developed countries received much lower perceived performance scores in comparison to their actual performance scores. It was also found out that the perceived performance score of Turkey remained lower than its actual performance score. In other words, the actual performance score of Turkey turned out to be much higher, with a statistically significant value, than the world average performance score. The study eventually came up with remarkable positive performance scores for the countries such as Japan, S. Korea, Israel, Australia, Turkey and Canada.

The desk research also enabled the researcher to examine the prevalent perceptions regarding the “balanced quarantine” period experienced in Turkey along with the related social and individual issues.  These examinations were furthered so as to look into the issue on the basis of gender and some related sub-categories (See Graph 2).

Graph 2. Social and Individual Problems Felt/Perceived during the Balanced Quarantine Period (%)

It was discovered that 72 % of the households interviewed throughout the study comprised of individuals -except for those who are pensioners, unemployed, etc.- who kept on working outside of their dwelling either on full-time/part-time or in an alternating mode. It was also found out that every day, at least one individual, out of an average of 56% of these residences, goes outside. It was also found out that the sample of the study (interviewed individuals) did not have any concerns as to maintaining the public order while the social distancing measures and “Turkey; Stay-at-Home” order was in place, apart from a small number of female respondents who mentioned their concerns regarding corruption, being overcharged (for certain commodities) and opportunism. Issues such as psychological problems, domestic violence, fear of becoming unemployed and difficulty in education were also mostly mentioned by female respondents while the male respondents were found to be mostly focusing on macro problems with a socioeconomic and sociopolitical scope.

Table 3 summarizes how Turkish people spent their time at home during COVID-19 quarantine days.

Table 3. Indoor Activities Household Individuals engage with during COVID-19 Quarantine Days

As depicted in Table 3, it was discovered that 4.4 % of the Turkish population almost had no hobbies to spend their spare time with. In terms of age groups and gender, it was found out that especially a significant part of the urban population comprising mostly of 70+ males, had almost no hobbies to engage with.  As for the females, no statistically significant hobbies were found except for cooking and knitting for midlle and lower-middle class socio-economic group. Likewise, it was observed that conventional mass media usage increased with TV watching rate climbing up to almost 95% and 74.9 % of the population relied on news coverage on TV rather than  social media or online news sources. There is literally a decline on the level of trust regarding COVID-19 related news coverage on social media sites; which was measured as 56.4 %.  The respondents frequently mentioned the prolonged negative impact triggered by social media posts shared in the aftermath of the first lockdown announcement. The reason for the increased level of trust for news coverage and programs on TV channels was stated as the scientific tone of the discussions mostly participated by prominent scientists and medical doctors prominent in their fields, rather than personal perspectives and viewpoints to be shared.  During the COVID-19 Quarantine period, TV watching rate turned out to vary between 0.5-5.0 hours for the general population while the time spent on internet was on average 2.5 hours to be mostly spent on social media sites and online news sources in the form of frequent and short intervals. However, unlike the general public, time spent on internet went up as high as to 8 hours for the age group 44 and below.  When the time spent at home was exposed to further analyses, it was determined that individuals in Turkish society tended to act more instinctively and intuitively rather than following systematic behavioral patterns. This tendency urgently needs to be adjusted and improved through tailor-made education and training sessions designed for specific target groups in the population. For instance, certain talents and skillsets along with games to be played in groups as pastime activities can be taught and improved through tailor-made education and training sessions designed for different socio-demographic segments of the society such as youngsters, seniors, gender specific, etc.

This study also revealed that shopping through the internet turned out to be lower than expected with the narrower range of general products/services except for (health care products, masks, medicine, etc.) This can be attributed to three main reasons such as; i) not being able to determine the necessary products apart from the basic needs due to uncertainty, ii) tendency to save from expenses related to uncertainty, iii) postponing for future. Overall, all these can be linked to the fact that Turkish people tend to act more impulsively at times of crises.

The already existing health problems of the households were also looked into and the problems stated by the respondents are depicted in Table 4.

Table 4. Already Existing Health Problems of the Households

As it is seen on the above table, respratory tract diseases, cardiovascular diseases, high blood pressure and chronic cough were identified as the most prevalent health conditions in Turkey. It was found out that these conditions were twice as common amongst males as opposed to females and the triggering factors seemed to be intertwined as smoking and insufficient access to fresh air either indoors or outdoors. Moreover, depression and related psychological conditions were mostly expressed by females from the middle-age and below middle-age socio-demographic groups.

CONCLUSION

The lifetime of the humankind on Earth is a long journey and prone to several epidemics and crises, with COVID-19 to be only one of them. What is expected from the scholars and academics is to explore this process by proof-based analytical research studies to be able to come up with solutions for both during and post-crises periods. This expectation necessitates focusing on cause and effect relationship of the phenomena to discover the hidden patterns behind them. Sophisticated phenomena and incidents bring forth the need for an analytical perspective to generate more accurate and academically sound findings and conclusions. The present study is an exploratory study with an analytical nature based on a similar need, with which the researcher hopes to generate contributory results and conclusions.

KAYNAKÇA

Lacobucci D., Churchill G.A., “Marketing Research: Methodological Foundations, 12th Edition, Nashville TN; Early Lite Books Inc, 2018, Wisconsin, USA

Thompson S.K., Sampling, 3rd Edition, A John Wiley & Sons Inc., Publication, 2012, New Jersey, USA

www.covid19.saglik.gov.tr

www.who.org

www.worlometer.info

www.tuik.gov.tr;  Sağlık İstatistikleri Yıllığı 2018